Introduction
Do a combination of factors that are happening right now mean that this is the time to buy that new home? Let’s take a look at what is happening in the Real Estate market and the mortgage market to see if this is the time to buy.
Real Estate Sales History
We have recently researched the sales history here in the Mount Kearsarge / Lake Sunapee region of NH and found some interesting results. Below is a chart showing the total number of sales each year from 2001 to 2010 for 13 towns in our area. This data was collected from January 1st to November 15th of each year. This chart also shows the average and median Days on Market for these years.
Number of Sales and Days on Market
As you can see from this chart, the largest number of sales occurred in 2004 with 445 sales. The lowest number of sales was in 2009 with 263. What is interesting is that so far this year, we have more sales than last year with 287 in the same time period. This indicates that in our area, the market is starting to improve.
Another indicator to look at is the sales price of properties. The chart below gives the average and median sales price of homes for the last 10 years.
Sales Price History
As you can see, we had a peak for the price of homes in 2005 and 2007 with a reduction since then. But interestingly enough, so far this year the sales price of homes is up. Again, this is an indication of a stronger housing market in our area.
Another interesting fact is that even though last year was tough year, it was essentially equal to the average price of homes sold in 2004. In fact, if you compare the average price of homes sold this year to 2001, this year was up $108,000!
These two charts indicate that for our area, we could be past the bottom of the market. We do know that there are some great deals out there right now. It may be the time to grab them before they are gone!
Mortgage Market
Let’s now take a look at the mortgage market, and specifically, what is happening to interest rates. Although I am no mortgage expert, typically interest rates increase when there is positive economic data, and decline when there is bad news about the economy. With the stock market rising and more positive economic news every day, it would seem that we could expect interest rates to go up. Certainly they can’t get much lower than they were this summer. This being said, we could be seeing the increase in housing sales because buyers are thinking that rates may be going up in the future.
Conclusion
I wanted to write this article, not to push people to buy now, but to inform people that we look to be at at a change in the market. It could be that we are just past the lowest point for housing sales and price, and just past the lowest point for interest rates. Given these two factors, you make the decision. Is it your time to buy?
